{"id":"20ab13a8-cb31-5228-ab6b-e2d3076f145f","stable_key":"fcc4fa9c-4dc8-5566-b780-1a486c4d3e72:alcohol-jcurve-observed","predicate":"reduces","statement":"In unadjusted models, protective effects were identified for alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality in pooled English cohorts of adults aged 50 and over, which the authors examine to test the suitability of age-specific limits.","claim_class":"observational","status":"source_derived_draft","evidence_grade":"ungraded","direction":"negative","is_public":true,"mechanism_event_id":"66edd28e-7fbf-59a7-bb70-3842980a6d36","mechanism_event_label":"In the raw numbers, older people who drank moderately died less often.","subject":{"id":"38692dc7-dbe9-5295-bcb7-145c768b28a3","slug":"alcohol-consumption","display_name":"Habitual alcohol consumption","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"object":{"id":"99c4f30c-96a2-5d93-a35e-5bef641cd1d8","slug":"all-cause-mortality","display_name":"All-cause mortality","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"evidence_count":1,"mechanism_event":{"id":"66edd28e-7fbf-59a7-bb70-3842980a6d36","stable_key":"fcc4fa9c-4dc8-5566-b780-1a486c4d3e72:alcohol-jcurve-observed-event","event_type":"observed_intervention","label":"In the raw numbers, older people who drank moderately died less often.","description":"In unadjusted models, protective effects were identified for alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality in pooled English cohorts of adults aged 50 and over, which the authors examine to test the suitability of age-specific limits.","status":"provisional","compartment":null,"participants":[{"entity":{"id":"38692dc7-dbe9-5295-bcb7-145c768b28a3","slug":"alcohol-consumption","display_name":"Habitual alcohol consumption","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"role":"subject","stoichiometry":null,"state_label":"","sequence_order":0,"notes":""},{"entity":{"id":"99c4f30c-96a2-5d93-a35e-5bef641cd1d8","slug":"all-cause-mortality","display_name":"All-cause mortality","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"role":"target","stoichiometry":null,"state_label":"","sequence_order":1,"notes":""}]},"contexts":[{"dimension":"evidence_span","value_text":"{\"source_cache\": \"artifacts/alcohol-research/25670624.abstract.txt\", \"locator\": \"Indexed abstract; zero-based, end-exclusive Unicode character offsets\", \"file_sha256\": \"2915b9b52e02cedee89d34376f15e2efc97c6a66e83377240892b305c0c5c1b8\", \"start_char\": 0, \"end_char\": 3171, \"text_sha256\": \"2915b9b52e02cedee89d34376f15e2efc97c6a66e83377240892b305c0c5c1b8\"}","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"experimental_model","value_text":"Pooled analysis of up to 10 population cohorts from the Health Survey for England","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"exposure","value_text":"Self-reported weekly and heaviest-day consumption in adults aged 50 and over","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"limitations","value_text":"A large observational cohort with the abstainer comparison the reanalysis above criticises. Protective effects were identified in unadjusted models.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"nutrient_topic","value_text":"Alcohol research collection; topical membership is not evidence of a direct clinical effect, and ethanol is recorded separately from the acetaldehyde it becomes.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":{"slug":"ethanol","display_name":"Ethanol","entity_type_key":"drug"}},{"dimension":"organism","value_text":"Human","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"plain_language","value_text":"In the raw numbers, older people who drank moderately died less often.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"primary_references","value_text":"[alcohol-p25670624] All cause mortality and the case for age specific alcohol consumption guidelines: pooled analyses of up to 10 population based cohorts. (2015). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25670624/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h384","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"tissue_or_cell_type","value_text":"Whole body","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null}],"evidence":[{"id":"fa1e471a-a322-57ae-98d9-4ac9a8429363","evidence_kind":"source_excerpt","locator":"Lines 592-603","start_line":592,"end_line":603,"excerpt":"### alcohol-jcurve-observed\nIn unadjusted models, protective effects were identified for alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality in pooled English cohorts of adults aged 50 and over, which the authors examine to test the suitability of age-specific limits.\nCondition category: normal\nnutrient_topic: Alcohol research collection; topical membership is not evidence of a direct clinical effect, and ethanol is recorded separately from the acetaldehyde it becomes.\nplain_language: In the raw numbers, older people who drank moderately died less often.\norganism: Human\ntissue_or_cell_type: Whole body\nexperimental_model: Pooled analysis of up to 10 population cohorts from the Health Survey for England\nlimitations: A large observational cohort with the abstainer comparison the reanalysis above criticises. Protective effects were identified in unadjusted models.\nexposure: Self-reported weekly and heaviest-day consumption in adults aged 50 and over\nevidence_span: {\"source_cache\": \"artifacts/alcohol-research/25670624.abstract.txt\", \"locator\": \"Indexed abstract; zero-based, end-exclusive Unicode character offsets\", \"file_sha256\": \"2915b9b52e02cedee89d34376f15e2efc97c6a66e83377240892b305c0c5c1b8\", \"start_char\": 0, \"end_char\": 3171, \"text_sha256\": \"2915b9b52e02cedee89d34376f15e2efc97c6a66e83377240892b305c0c5c1b8\"}\n[alcohol-p25670624] All cause mortality and the case for age specific alcohol consumption guidelines: pooled analyses of up to 10 population based cohorts. (2015). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25670624/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h384","model_system":"Pooled analysis of up to 10 population cohorts from the Health Survey for England","directness":"author_interpretation","verification_status":"source_derived_draft","notes":"Exact curation-document quotation, not publisher quotation. Study references: [alcohol-p25670624] All cause mortality and the case for age specific alcohol consumption guidelines: pooled analyses of up to 10 population based cohorts. (2015). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25670624/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h384","relationship":"supports","weight":1.0,"link_notes":"","source":{"id":"4b310db0-1387-548c-9e3d-6d2ed634b2cd","stable_key":"import-fcc4fa9c-4dc8-5566-b780-1a486c4d3e72","title":"Alcohol: ethanol clearance, acetaldehyde, the channels it binds, organ injury and nutrient collisions (2026-09-21)","document_type":"imported_text","citation_label":"AI-assisted literature curation; primary study URLs and scope retained in the document and extraction. Not publisher full text.","file_path":"","sha256":"cb7e8dc390e8bf302cd5e230cadff6ce9847b4aad8a3691a308964d93ba59a85","revision_id":"4b344e1e-4129-579c-a058-50262b03f9a8","review_status":"unverified_draft","notes":""}}],"relations":[],"conflicts":[{"id":"391557eb-2c4b-565c-b9ad-c99ffd480281","title":"Do moderate drinkers really live longer?","kind":"contradiction","status":"open","why":"Pooled cohort analyses reproduce a J-shaped curve in which low-volume drinkers have lower all-cause mortality than abstainers. A meta-regression of 87 studies covering nearly four million people found that the curve disappears once former and occasional drinkers are no longer counted as abstainers and study quality is controlled, with the relative risk moving from 0.86 to a non-significant 0.97. A Mendelian randomisation study of 261,991 people, using a variant that lowers consumption, found lower coronary heart disease in carriers across every consumption category, which is the opposite of a protective effect of alcohol. The observational and genetic designs differ in what they can be confounded by, and the cohorts differ in how abstainers were defined. The disagreement is recorded, not resolved.","resolution":"Unresolved; needs review.","created_at":"2026-09-21 23:20:18","record_type":"conflict","display_label":"Recorded conflict","record_url":"/conflicts/391557eb-2c4b-565c-b9ad-c99ffd480281","sides":[{"conflict_id":"391557eb-2c4b-565c-b9ad-c99ffd480281","ordinal":0,"label":"In the raw numbers, older people who drank moderately died less often.","revision_id":"4b344e1e-4129-579c-a058-50262b03f9a8","start_line":592,"end_line":603,"quote":"### alcohol-jcurve-observed\nIn unadjusted models, protective effects were identified for alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality in pooled English cohorts of adults aged 50 and over, which the authors examine to test the suitability of age-specific limits.\nCondition category: normal\nnutrient_topic: Alcohol research collection; topical membership is not evidence of a direct clinical effect, and ethanol is recorded separately from the acetaldehyde it becomes.\nplain_language: In the raw numbers, older people who drank moderately died less often.\norganism: Human\ntissue_or_cell_type: Whole body\nexperimental_model: Pooled analysis of up to 10 population cohorts from the Health Survey for England\nlimitations: A large observational cohort with the abstainer comparison the reanalysis above criticises. Protective effects were identified in unadjusted models.\nexposure: Self-reported weekly and heaviest-day consumption in adults aged 50 and over\nevidence_span: {\"source_cache\": \"artifacts/alcohol-research/25670624.abstract.txt\", \"locator\": \"Indexed abstract; zero-based, end-exclusive Unicode character offsets\", \"file_sha256\": \"2915b9b52e02cedee89d34376f15e2efc97c6a66e83377240892b305c0c5c1b8\", \"start_char\": 0, \"end_char\": 3171, \"text_sha256\": \"2915b9b52e02cedee89d34376f15e2efc97c6a66e83377240892b305c0c5c1b8\"}\n[alcohol-p25670624] All cause mortality and the case for age specific alcohol consumption guidelines: pooled analyses of up to 10 population based cohorts. (2015). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25670624/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h384","source_key":"import-fcc4fa9c-4dc8-5566-b780-1a486c4d3e72","source_title":"Alcohol: ethanol clearance, acetaldehyde, the channels it binds, organ injury and nutrient collisions (2026-09-21)","claim_ids":["20ab13a8-cb31-5228-ab6b-e2d3076f145f"]},{"conflict_id":"391557eb-2c4b-565c-b9ad-c99ffd480281","ordinal":1,"label":"The apparent benefit of light drinking disappears once sick ex-drinkers are taken out of the comparison group.","revision_id":"4b344e1e-4129-579c-a058-50262b03f9a8","start_line":579,"end_line":590,"quote":"### alcohol-jcurve-artefact\nWithout adjustment the meta-analysis replicated the classic J-shaped curve with reduced mortality for low-volume drinkers (relative risk 0.86), but after adjustment for abstainer biases and study quality no significant reduction remained (relative risk 0.97), while former drinkers had elevated risk (1.22).\nCondition category: normal\nnutrient_topic: Alcohol research collection; topical membership is not evidence of a direct clinical effect, and ethanol is recorded separately from the acetaldehyde it becomes.\nplain_language: The apparent benefit of light drinking disappears once sick ex-drinkers are taken out of the comparison group.\norganism: Human\ntissue_or_cell_type: Whole body\nexperimental_model: Systematic review and meta-regression of 87 studies, 3,998,626 people and 367,103 deaths\nlimitations: A bias-adjustment analysis. It does not report new participants; it reanalyses the existing cohorts after correcting how abstainers were defined.\nexposure: Alcohol consumption categories against all-cause mortality, adjusted for study quality\nevidence_span: {\"source_cache\": \"artifacts/alcohol-research/26997174.abstract.txt\", \"locator\": \"Indexed abstract; zero-based, end-exclusive Unicode character offsets\", \"file_sha256\": \"db6a3810963367be7e87327becdf62060843fbd53c764a0d5c8f3d6c3084e9ec\", \"start_char\": 0, \"end_char\": 2096, \"text_sha256\": \"db6a3810963367be7e87327becdf62060843fbd53c764a0d5c8f3d6c3084e9ec\"}\n[alcohol-p26997174] Do \"Moderate\" Drinkers Have Reduced Mortality Risk? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Alcohol Consumption and All-Cause Mortality. (2016). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26997174/ DOI: 10.15288/jsad.2016.77.185","source_key":"import-fcc4fa9c-4dc8-5566-b780-1a486c4d3e72","source_title":"Alcohol: ethanol clearance, acetaldehyde, the channels it binds, organ injury and nutrient collisions (2026-09-21)","claim_ids":["095e7f4a-cf21-5c02-a5b0-210b5a652b0b"]}]}],"corrections":[],"research":null}