{"id":"11644fc5-228d-5a85-95a9-c7a38678d618","stable_key":"ec174d5a-4903-5745-8646-df0e9d4265e8:fol-rbc-population-risk-model","predicate":"inversely_associated_with_modeled_ntd_risk","statement":"The Bayesian model estimated 25.4 NTDs per 10000 births at RBC folate 500 nmol/L, with risk substantially lower above approximately 1000 nmol/L; this was an estimated population relation.","claim_class":"observational","status":"source_derived_draft","evidence_grade":"ungraded","direction":"negative","is_public":true,"mechanism_event_id":"c0baab9e-c6ce-5baf-b980-a5e6c07f794a","mechanism_event_label":"Red-cell folate helped model population risk; it was not a pass/fail test for an individual pregnancy.","subject":{"id":"0f6abef3-19b7-5cd9-b7f6-53a1048c4480","slug":"erythrocyte-folate-concentration","display_name":"Erythrocyte folate concentration","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"object":{"id":"763ed160-e614-5def-8cbe-16ecb2e2d003","slug":"neural-tube-defect-incidence","display_name":"Neural-tube defect incidence","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"evidence_count":1,"mechanism_event":{"id":"c0baab9e-c6ce-5baf-b980-a5e6c07f794a","stable_key":"ec174d5a-4903-5745-8646-df0e9d4265e8:fol-rbc-population-risk-model-event","event_type":"observed_intervention","label":"Red-cell folate helped model population risk; it was not a pass/fail test for an individual pregnancy.","description":"The Bayesian model estimated 25.4 NTDs per 10000 births at RBC folate 500 nmol/L, with risk substantially lower above approximately 1000 nmol/L; this was an estimated population relation.","status":"provisional","compartment":null,"participants":[{"entity":{"id":"0f6abef3-19b7-5cd9-b7f6-53a1048c4480","slug":"erythrocyte-folate-concentration","display_name":"Erythrocyte folate concentration","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"role":"subject","stoichiometry":null,"state_label":"","sequence_order":0,"notes":""},{"entity":{"id":"763ed160-e614-5def-8cbe-16ecb2e2d003","slug":"neural-tube-defect-incidence","display_name":"Neural-tube defect incidence","entity_type_key":"cellular_process"},"role":"target","stoichiometry":null,"state_label":"","sequence_order":1,"notes":""}]},"contexts":[{"dimension":"availability_state","value_text":"biomarker_context","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"Imported condition classification; unverified.","entity":null},{"dimension":"experimental_model","value_text":"Bayesian model combining the Chinese prevention cohort (247831 participants) and a separate blood-response trial (1194 women).","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"exposure","value_text":"Estimated RBC folate at neural-tube closure; modeled population risk, not a prospective test of an individual threshold.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"limitations","value_text":"Estimated concentration at neural-tube closure, assay context and model assumptions matter. Reuses the Chinese intervention cohort; not an independent prevention trial.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"nutrient_topic","value_text":"Folate and folic acid research collection; topical membership is not evidence of a direct dietary effect.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":{"slug":"folate","display_name":"Folate (vitamin B9)","entity_type_key":"chemical_species"}},{"dimension":"organism","value_text":"Homo sapiens","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"plain_language","value_text":"Red-cell folate helped model population risk; it was not a pass/fail test for an individual pregnancy.","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"primary_references","value_text":"[fol-crider2014] Population red blood cell folate concentrations for prevention of neural tube defects: Bayesian model (2014). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25073783/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.g4554","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"tissue_or_cell_type","value_text":"Human blood or whole-person clinical endpoints","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"","entity":null},{"dimension":"trigger_kind","value_text":"biomarker_context","comparator":null,"unit":null,"notes":"Imported condition classification; unverified.","entity":null}],"evidence":[{"id":"ce01d20f-7ef7-56ec-b52d-a2de2a9a9b96","evidence_kind":"source_excerpt","locator":"Lines 1396-1406","start_line":1396,"end_line":1406,"excerpt":"### fol-rbc-population-risk-model\nThe Bayesian model estimated 25.4 NTDs per 10000 births at RBC folate 500 nmol/L, with risk substantially lower above approximately 1000 nmol/L; this was an estimated population relation.\nCondition category: biomarker_context\nnutrient_topic: Folate and folic acid research collection; topical membership is not evidence of a direct dietary effect.\nplain_language: Red-cell folate helped model population risk; it was not a pass/fail test for an individual pregnancy.\norganism: Homo sapiens\ntissue_or_cell_type: Human blood or whole-person clinical endpoints\nexperimental_model: Bayesian model combining the Chinese prevention cohort (247831 participants) and a separate blood-response trial (1194 women).\nlimitations: Estimated concentration at neural-tube closure, assay context and model assumptions matter. Reuses the Chinese intervention cohort; not an independent prevention trial.\nexposure: Estimated RBC folate at neural-tube closure; modeled population risk, not a prospective test of an individual threshold.\n[fol-crider2014] Population red blood cell folate concentrations for prevention of neural tube defects: Bayesian model (2014). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25073783/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.g4554","model_system":"Bayesian model combining the Chinese prevention cohort (247831 participants) and a separate blood-response trial (1194 women).","directness":"author_interpretation","verification_status":"source_derived_draft","notes":"Exact curation-document quotation, not publisher quotation. Study references: [fol-crider2014] Population red blood cell folate concentrations for prevention of neural tube defects: Bayesian model (2014). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25073783/ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.g4554","relationship":"supports","weight":1.0,"link_notes":"","source":{"id":"f4ce1a62-9582-5f7a-84f5-a23d0e1bfc68","stable_key":"import-ec174d5a-4903-5745-8646-df0e9d4265e8","title":"Folate and folic acid: mechanisms, deficiency and nutrient interactions (2026-09-17)","document_type":"imported_text","citation_label":"AI-assisted literature curation; primary study URLs and scope retained in the document and extraction. Not publisher full text.","file_path":"","sha256":"e564d43989ece1006c95cd0748e9af6fe369074599a2eebba0a99ebff864b0dd","revision_id":"76674a33-b2a1-5e41-b71b-44399038ff7c","review_status":"unverified_draft","notes":""}}],"relations":[],"conflicts":[],"corrections":[],"research":null}